SNSF Narrative Digital Finance

Abstract

Large fluctuations, instabilities, trends and uncertainty of financial markets constitute a substantial challenge for asset management companies, pension funds and regulators. Nowadays, most asset management companies and financial institutions follow a so-called systematic trading approach in their investment decisions. Systematic trading refers to applying predefined, rule-based trading strategies for buy- and sell orders. However, automated or rules-based trading activities bring certain risks for market participants and the whole financial market. In times of increased market volatility, market turmoil or so-called market sell-offs, investors applying similar trading rules might undertake the same actions, escalating and increasing systemic market risk through such behavior. Such situations have been frequently observed on financial markets for instance, in March 2020 (sell-off related to the Covid pandemic), during the European Sovereign Debt crisis and the global financial crisis 2007-08. Research in economics and management has begun to embrace the role that narratives play in guiding individual and collective decision-making. McCloskey (2011) describes unforeseen growth in economic development yet goes on to explain that no economic theory is able to capture this extent. She argues that a change in rhetoric had basically freed a social class (the bourgeoisie) and given it a sense of dignity and liberty. As such, economic change, she argues, depends to a great extent on social narratives that shape ideas and the beliefs of people. Yet, despite the notion that narratives, individual and collective actions, and market outcomes are inextricably linked, our knowledge about the mechanisms or processes through which they interact and how narratives can inform opinions or sway current thinking is still evolving. Entrepreneurs, for example, may use verbal communication to achieve plausibility (i.e., generate the sense that a given interpretation of events appears acceptable) or resonance (i.e., obtain alignment with the beliefs of the target audience; see van Werven et al., 2019). They may do so through rhetoric such as storytelling (Navis & Glynn, 2011) or crafting compelling arguments (van Werven et al., 2015) as well as employing combinations of figurative language and gesturing (Clarke et al., 2021) as they manage and conform with the expectation of their audience.

Outcomes of invoking narratives are consequential. The literature has indeed documented various forms of verbal communication–including written texts such as social media posts and blogs, or business plans or spoken text (Garud et al., 2014; Clarke et al., 2019, Clarke et al., 2021) – as a crucial means to secure support and investment. The narratives or rhetoric employed in these stories are used as vehicles for assembling and communicating details about ideas and future possibilities (Garud et al., 2014). In summary, narratives help audiences make sense of situations and situate the description into the audience's social and cultural framework (Lounsbury and Glynn, 2001).

In the following, we, therefore, explore computational techniques to predict financial market outcomes using text, speech, and video/picture data. Advances in data processing and machine learning allow new ways of analysing data and may have profound implications for empirical testing of lightly studied, yet complex, empirical financial relationships. This project therefore integrates various forms of narratives into the context of financial market analysis, leverages machine learning techniques, and aims to show how narratives are inextricably interwoven in the continuously unfolding financial market evolutions. We will extend quantitative research through novel measurement techniques, the creation of new data sets, offering new solutions towards prediction problems, and the induction of new theories (Obschonka & Audretsch, 2020). We will also contribute to recent works that demonstrated the potential of theoretical and methodological advancements through the application of machine learning in the research practice (Mullainathan & Spiess, 2017; von Krogh, 2018). In pursuit of both practical 'relevance' of our research (Wiklund et al., 2019) and the contribution of "AI-integrated" research (Levesque et al. 2020), our approach will provide actionable insights.

Grant Link

Approach

In a first step, we will design a tool allowing us to collect all relevant data from various data sources. Indeed, collecting purely financial data, such as stock prices or macroeconomic indicators, can be easily performed using subscription-based platforms such as Bloomberg, Reuters or Investing.com. However, textual data will constitute a substantial challenge in terms of (i) collecting from the web, (ii) formatting, and (iii) pre-processing, including dating and categorising. For this purpose, we will develop an automated tool which will collect textual data, categorise them, date and store them in an easy to analyse format. We will manage our database with SQL solutions. The second step will focus on our research questions and the four building blocks listed below.

We will formulate numerous data-driven general/main and block-specific research questions within our hypothesis-driven project. The main research questions will be:

1. In what sense are financial markets (ex-ante) predictable?
2. Is the ex-ante forecastability persistent, can it be applied for real use cases and to which extent?
3. How can structural break detection and changes in financial time series improve and complement modern portfolio theory?

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